Using Bayesian dynamical systems, model averaging and neural networks to determine interactions between socio-economic indicators

Social and economic systems produce complex and nonlinear relationships in the indicator variables that describe them. We present a Bayesian methodology to analyze the dynamical relationships between indicator variables by identifying the nonlinear functions that best describe their interactions. We search for the ‘best’ explicit functions by fitting data using Bayesian linear regression on a vast number of models and then comparing their Bayes factors. The model with the highest Bayes factor, having the best trade-off between explanatory power and interpretability, is chosen as the ‘best’ model. To be able to compare a vast number of models, we use conjugate priors, resulting in fast computation times. We check the robustness of our approach by comparison with more prediction oriented approaches such as model averaging and neural networks. Our modelling approach is illustrated using the classical example of how democracy and economic growth relate to each other. We find that the best dynamical model for democracy suggests that long term democratic increase is only possible if the economic situation gets better. No robust model explaining economic development using these two variables was found

Choice modelling with Gaussian processes in the social sciences: A case study of neighbourhood choice in Stockholm

We present a non-parametric extension of the conditional logit model, using Gaussian process priors. The conditional logit model is used in quantitative social science for inferring interaction effects between personal features and choice characteristics from observations of individual multinomial decisions, such as where to live, which car to buy or which school to choose. The classic, parametric model presupposes a latent utility function that is a linear combination of choice characteristics and their interactions with personal features. This imposes strong and unrealistic constraints on the form of individuals’ preferences. Extensions using non-linear basis functions derived from the original features can ameliorate this problem but at the cost of high model complexity and increased reliance on the user in model specification. In this paper we develop a non-parametric conditional logit model based on Gaussian process logit models. We demonstrate its application on housing choice data from over 50,000 moving households from the Stockholm area over a two year period to reveal complex homophilic patterns in income, ethnicity and parental status

Quorum Decision-Making in Foraging Fish Shoals

Quorum responses provide a means for group-living animals to integrate and filter disparate social information to produce accurate and coherent group decisions. A quorum response may be defined as a steep increase in the probability of group members performing a given behaviour once a threshold minimum number of their group mates already performing that behaviour is exceeded. In a previous study we reported the use of a quorum response in group decision-making of threespine sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus) under a simulated predation threat. Here we examine the use of quorum responses by shoals of sticklebacks in first locating and then leaving a foraging patch. We show that a quorum rule explains movement decisions by threespine sticklebacks toward and then away from a food patch. Following both to and from a food patch occurred when a threshold number of initiators was exceeded, with the threshold being determined by the group size

Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena display nonlinearities. In this article, we introduce a new modeling tool in order to partly fill this void in the literature. Using data of all secondary schools in Stockholm county during the years 1990 to 2002, we demonstrate how the methodology can be applied to identify complex dynamic patterns like tipping points and multiple phase transitions with respect to segregation. We establish critical thresholds in schools’ ethnic compositions, in general, and in relation to various factors such as school quality and parents’ income, at which the schools are likely to tip and become increasingly segregated

On the Necessary Memory to Compute the Plurality in Multi-Agent Systems

We consider the Relative-Majority Problem (also known as Plurality), in which, given a multi-agent system where each agent is initially provided an input value out of a set of $k$ possible ones, each agent is required to eventually compute the input value with the highest frequency in the initial configuration. We consider the problem in the general Population Protocols model in which, given an underlying undirected connected graph whose nodes represent the agents, edges are selected by a globally fair scheduler. The state complexity that is required for solving the Plurality Problem (i.e., the minimum number of memory states that each agent needs to have in order to solve the problem), has been a long-standing open problem. The best protocol so far for the general multi-valued case requires polynomial memory: Salehkaleybar et al. (2015) devised a protocol that solves the problem by employing $O(k 2^k)$ states per agent, and they conjectured their upper bound to be optimal. On the other hand, under the strong assumption that agents initially agree on a total ordering of the initial input values, Gasieniec et al. (2017), provided an elegant logarithmic-memory plurality protocol. In this work, we refute Salehkaleybar et al.'s conjecture, by providing a plurality protocol which employs $O(k^{11})$ states per agent. Central to our result is an ordering protocol which allows to leverage on the plurality protocol by Gasieniec et al., of independent interest. We also provide a $\Omega(k^2)$-state lower bound on the necessary memory to solve the problem, proving that the Plurality Problem cannot be solved within the mere memory necessary to encode the output.Comment: 14 pages, accepted at CIAC 201

Symmetry restoring bifurcation in collective decision-making.

How social groups and organisms decide between alternative feeding sites or shelters has been extensively studied both experimentally and theoretically. One key result is the existence of a symmetry-breaking bifurcation at a critical system size, where there is a switch from evenly distributed exploitation of all options to a focussed exploitation of just one. Here we present a decision-making model in which symmetry-breaking is followed by a symmetry restoring bifurcation, whereby very large systems return to an even distribution of exploitation amongst options. The model assumes local positive feedback, coupled with a negative feedback regulating the flow toward the feeding sites. We show that the model is consistent with three different strains of the slime mold Physarum polycephalum, choosing between two feeding sites. We argue that this combination of feedbacks could allow collective foraging organisms to react flexibly in a dynamic environment

How Group Size Affects Vigilance Dynamics and Time Allocation Patterns: The Key Role of Imitation and Tempo

In the context of social foraging, predator detection has been the subject of numerous studies, which acknowledge the adaptive response of the individual to the trade-off between feeding and vigilance. Typically, animals gain energy by increasing their feeding time and decreasing their vigilance effort with increasing group size, without increasing their risk of predation (‘group size effect’). Research on the biological utility of vigilance has prevailed over considerations of the mechanistic rules that link individual decisions to group behavior. With sheep as a model species, we identified how the behaviors of conspecifics affect the individual decisions to switch activity. We highlight a simple mechanism whereby the group size effect on collective vigilance dynamics is shaped by two key features: the magnitude of social amplification and intrinsic differences between foraging and scanning bout durations. Our results highlight a positive correlation between the duration of scanning and foraging bouts at the level of the group. This finding reveals the existence of groups with high and low rates of transition between activies, suggesting individual variations in the transition rate, or ‘tempo’. We present a mathematical model based on behavioral rules derived from experiments. Our theoretical predictions show that the system is robust in respect to variations in the propensity to imitate scanning and foraging, yet flexible in respect to differences in the duration of activity bouts. The model shows how individual decisions contribute to collective behavior patterns and how the group, in turn, facilitates individual-level adaptive responses

Individual rules for trail pattern formation in Argentine ants (Linepithema humile)

We studied the formation of trail patterns by Argentine ants exploring an empty arena. Using a novel imaging and analysis technique we estimated pheromone concentrations at all spatial positions in the experimental arena and at different times. Then we derived the response function of individual ants to pheromone concentrations by looking at correlations between concentrations and changes in speed or direction of the ants. Ants were found to turn in response to local pheromone concentrations, while their speed was largely unaffected by these concentrations. Ants did not integrate pheromone concentrations over time, with the concentration of pheromone in a 1 cm radius in front of the ant determining the turning angle. The response to pheromone was found to follow a Weber's Law, such that the difference between quantities of pheromone on the two sides of the ant divided by their sum determines the magnitude of the turning angle. This proportional response is in apparent contradiction with the well-established non-linear choice function used in the literature to model the results of binary bridge experiments in ant colonies (Deneubourg et al. 1990). However, agent based simulations implementing the Weber's Law response function led to the formation of trails and reproduced results reported in the literature. We show analytically that a sigmoidal response, analogous to that in the classical Deneubourg model for collective decision making, can be derived from the individual Weber-type response to pheromone concentrations that we have established in our experiments when directional noise around the preferred direction of movement of the ants is assumed.Comment: final version, 9 figures, submitted to Plos Computational Biology (accepted

Fluctuation-Driven Flocking Movement in Three Dimensions and Scale-Free Correlation

Recent advances in the study of flocking behavior have permitted more sophisticated analyses than previously possible. The concepts of “topological distances” and “scale-free correlations” are important developments that have contributed to this improvement. These concepts require us to reconsider the notion of a neighborhood when applied to theoretical models. Previous work has assumed that individuals interact with neighbors within a certain radius (called the “metric distance”). However, other work has shown that, assuming topological interactions, starlings interact on average with the six or seven nearest neighbors within a flock. Accounting for this observation, we previously proposed a metric-topological interaction model in two dimensions. The goal of our model was to unite these two interaction components, the metric distance and the topological distance, into one rule. In our previous study, we demonstrated that the metric-topological interaction model could explain a real bird flocking phenomenon called scale-free correlation, which was first reported by Cavagna et al. In this study, we extended our model to three dimensions while also accounting for variations in speed. This three-dimensional metric-topological interaction model displayed scale-free correlation for velocity and orientation. Finally, we introduced an additional new feature of the model, namely, that a flock can store and release its fluctuations